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02 May 2009

Today in the SP Cash, we were range bound with the high of 880.48, lows of 866.10 and a close of 877.52. Till we decisively break the 885 level to the upside and hold it, or break the 660 level to the disadvantage and hold it, we are able to forecast a short term trendless range. The market did attempt to go higher, topping off at 888.70, but then came off and sliced around between the high and 884 for around a 30 minutes before it finally started to break down. Every time it went lower, it attempted to rally, but failed, and we finished the day near to the days lows. This is an enormous one at approx 885 in the SP Money . If the market get above this level and holds it, then the rally should have a short term objective of approx 910. Today was an unexciting day in the market. So if that does not hold, and there's not a fast recovery how we saw this A. M. ( morning of four / twenty-eight / 09 ), look for the market to start trading lower with support at the 847 level and next support at 840 level, followed by approx 836.Now, if the 855 support does hold, then the day will be a relatively uneventful day with the most likely range being 855 to 865. In my weekend research, I said that the rally we saw late last week wanted to hold the eight hundred and fifty level on a retest.

We're going to see what occurs when that happens. That is not to claim that we'll get there, it is just a statement that given a Bear Market, and given a rally started, those might be the objectivesto the upside if there's really strength in the market. If that breaks, then look for a new leg down. So if you havent done so already, you should ask, Is the market still in a Bear Market? Well to my mind it it, and here is why I suspect so. If you study the SP 500, we had a high last year of roughly 1575, and not so long a go we hit lows of about 675.

If you look at those objectives, you might say thats a hell of a run, the bear market needs to be over. It isn't the fell down property market.

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